与他人讨论结婚需要寻找对象,分析结果显示现在剩女大量出现的原因之一。
女生,此人自己有房,本科,25岁。
要求条件:杭州市区本地人,自己有房(2室1厅以上),相貌过的去,有上进心。年龄合适25-30岁。身高体重不限。
表面上来说,对于一个杭州本地女生而言,以上条件并不算过分,甚至可以说很普通。然而,实际上,即使如此,此人能够寻找到结婚对象的可能性也非常小。
1、人口数量:
http://www.fpc.gov.cn/Article.asp?NewsID=2295
提供了2006年末官方的人口数字,市区户籍人口为414万人。实际上,萧山和余杭并不会被考虑,因此实际能考虑约为214万。其中男性为51%,约为110万。
数据修正:考虑到当前为2009年,杭州市近年来发展迅速,因此人口应有所增加。但是杭州并未采取类似与上海的户口封闭政策,其户籍管理政策为开放性,且有大量高校毕业生将户口挂靠于杭州市内。增加的大量人口并不符合此女生的要求,因此,对于当前的110万,仅采用0.871%的出生率进行修正,修正后为:112万。
2、年龄窗口
http://blog.zjol.com.cn/223057/viewspace-114118
http://jp.hangzhou.com.cn/20050101/ca969413.htm
此2网页数据基本为官方数据,男性为76岁,65岁以上老龄率为10.87%。能够被接受的年龄为25-30岁,为8.84万
数据修正:考虑到当前25-30岁,实际上为1979年-1984年之间的中国生育高峰。因此,此处数据应增加修正。粗略修正为10万,无任何数据根据。
3、未婚人口
http://www.hangzhou.gov.cn/main/zjhz/hzsz/citymark/338/T83076.shtml?catalogid=5397
此处给出了1982年时期的未婚男性人口比例,36.26%,为3.6万
数据修正:考虑当前婚嫁观念的更新,未婚男性比例应有所上升。此处修正为4.5万,无任何数据根据。
4、相貌过得去和上进心
这两条纯粹属于感性条件,因此直接按50%计算。结果1.1万。
5、房产
很明显,这个条件是非常苛刻的。寻找到的资料也非常老旧
http://www.js.xinhuanet.com/zhuanti/2006-02/07/content_6184967.htm
http://www.upla.cn/news/_contents/2007/03/75-21834.shtml
由于要求独自有房,实际上要考虑拥有2套以上住房的家庭,2005年期间为17%。结果1870人。
数据修正:实际上近年来,居民买房的能力实际上是下降的,大多数居民并没有能力购买第二套住房,因此,数据应该向下修正。修正为1500,无任何数据根据。
6、其他及结论
虽然当前的要求只有这些,实际上,人会有隐藏的更多的要求,比如学历,性格等等。虽然说对于身高体重没有要求,实际上还是会有,不过是不注重。实际能够被考虑的估计只有几百人。在一个近千万人口的大城市,仅仅几百人符合条件,可见结婚之困难。
现状:依旧单身。
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